When I decided to start my poker vlog, I thought the east coast poker scene was underrepresented. The other reason was that I felt the process of creating the vlog would help me focus on my game more and make me get better.
After running into some issues filming for the vlog, I decided to pivot the channel while I work on being able to film again and take a deeper look into some of my plays and give it an honest critique of how I played them.
Poker Hand Analysis
We start this hand with the main villain being the effective stack with $710. Sitting UTG, I look down at 10︎10︎ and open to $20.
There are calls from the player in MP, LoJack, and SB before we see a three-bet from the BB to $100.
While this is a very strong move, I think we are deep enough to call here as the chance of this pot getting 4-bet is almost zero. As expected, the field callers all fold, and we head to a flop of 9︎7︎4.
When the BB bets $125, I think he can have a lot of hands here that we are dominated by but also hands like AK & AQ that we may be ahead of as we have an overpaid to the board, and he is unlikely to have a set here.
With that in mind, we call and see what the turn brings. With $510 in the pot, the 8︎ hits the turn.
The villain immediately shoves for his remaining $485. We now have an overpair to the board and an open ender.
We are getting about 2:1 here, and against a random hand, we are a slight favorite. The question is, are we actually up against a random hand?
Probably not. The best case scenario is if we are up against AK or AQ, but we are far more likely to be up against an overpair.
Against QQ, KK or AA, we are about 13% here, and against JJ, we are even worse. So the question comes down to, “is a typical $2/5 player going to bluff shove here” the answer is almost always no.
Most low-stakes players don’t bluff often enough and rarely for their whole stack. This player is also 3-bet out of position last to act into four players, and we should be able to deduce the villain likely has AA or KK. Therefore, we are not getting the correct price to call.
Unfortunately for us, we had been running ok to this point, and all I could see was all those chips in the pot, and I wanted them. I convinced myself that “even if I am behind, I have eight straight and two set-outs,” which makes it ok.
We call, and as expected, we see the bad news when the villain turns over K︎K︎. The blank Q︎ on the River sealed our fate.
It shows that getting married to any hand can be a costly mistake. Especially when your opponent is practically telling you what they have, but you are too stubborn to listen.