Not All Pot Odds Are Created Alike

Many recreational poker players misinterpret pot odds as a simple, one-sided calculation: comparing the size of a bet to the size of the pot and deciding whether they can afford to call. However, pot odds are only one part of the equation. The true question is whether your equity in the hand justifies continuing—if your chances of winning the pot are lower than the price you are being offered, calling is a losing play over time. This misunderstanding leads to negative expected value (-EV) decisions that can erode a bankroll quickly.

This article will break down why pot odds must be weighed against your actual equity, how multi-way pots dramatically reduce your chances of winning, and why failing to account for equity leads to costly mistakes.

The Myth of One-Sided Pot Odds

Recreational players often think about pot odds as a standalone metric: “I’m getting 3-to-1, so I only need to win one out of four times to break even.” While this is the correct mathematical setup, it lacks a crucial element—your actual probability of winning. Simply getting favorable pot odds does not make a call correct. If your hand only has 15% equity and you need 25% equity to make the call profitable, you are burning money.

How to Calculate True Pot Odds Correctly

Pot odds are calculated by comparing the call size to the total pot after calling:

However, the missing piece is your equity, which represents your likelihood of winning the hand at showdown. Your equity must be greater than the pot odds being laid to make a +EV call.

Example 1: A Simple Heads-Up Spot

On the turn you face a bet of $50 into a $100 pot. The total pot after calling will be $200. Your pot odds are:

$50/$200 = 0.25 = 25%

This means you need at least 25% equity to make a breakeven call. If you have a flush draw with 9 outs and one card to come, your approximate equity is 18%. Since your equity is lower than the required threshold, calling would be a losing play in the long run.

If you hit your flush only 18% of the time but need to win 25% of the time to break even, this is a negative EV call.

If the pot stayed $200 and you win the pot 18% that equals $36 over time vs. calling $50. So in the long run you are losing $14 making this call.

Why Multi-Way Pots Make It Even Worse

One of the biggest mistakes players make is assuming that pot odds remain static when multiple players are involved. In reality, your equity decreases significantly in multi-way pots, which means that calls that might have been profitable heads-up become disastrous.

Example 2: A Three-Way Scenario

Using the same situation as before, but now there are two opponents instead of one. Your flush draw might have been 18% heads-up, but with multiple opponents, the following issues arise:

1. Your equity drops – More players mean a higher likelihood that someone has a made hand or a stronger draw. Against two opponents, your equity might be reduced to 14%.
2. Your implied odds diminish – Even if you hit your flush, one of your opponents may hit a better hand or not pay off a bet.
3. Reverse implied odds increase – If another player holds a stronger flush draw or a set or 2-pair that can make a full house with one of your flush cards your equity will be diminished again. Depending on the board, you could be drawing dead.

Even if you are getting 3-to-1 on a call, if your actual equity is lower than the breakeven percentage, the call remains -EV.

The Misconception of “Discounted Calls”

Another dangerous fallacy occurs when players believe that if part of their bet is already invested in the pot, they are getting better odds to continue. This leads to calling bets they shouldn’t simply because they feel committed.

Consider a player who called a $30 bet preflop and now faces a $70 bet on the flop into a $100 pot holding second pair. They think, “Well, the pot is big, and I already put money in, and I do have a good pair, so I should call.” This is faulty logic. Your previous investment is a sunk cost—what matters is whether calling the bet now has positive expected value. If someone raised pre-flop and is again betting into multiple players, the odds are they have something better than second pair.

Plus you have to keep in mind the other players still in the hand,you have to beat them too.

Correcting the Leak: Making Smarter Decisions

If you want to avoid the trap of fake pot odds, follow these principles:

1. Always Compare Equity to Pot Odds

Before calling, determine if your actual equity exceeds the pot odds required to break even. If your hand does not have enough equity, folding is the correct decision.

2. Recognize How Multi-Way Pots Reduce Your Chances of Winning

The more opponents in the hand, the lower your equity. In many cases, calling with a draw in a multi-way pot, even with “good odds,” is incorrect.

3. Don’t Chase Just Because the Pot Is Large

A big pot does not justify a call if your equity is too low. Even if you’re getting 4-to-1, if your actual equity is only 15%, it is still a losing decision.

4. Be Wary of Reverse Implied Odds

Not only should you consider the likelihood of making your hand, but also whether hitting your hand will actually be profitable. If you hit a weak flush or a low straight, you could still lose to a stronger hand.

5. Practice with Tools Like Poker Equity 6. Don’t Be Results OrientedCalculators

To develop a better sense of when to call, use tools like Equilab or PokerStove to calculate your equity in various scenarios. Over time, you will internalize which calls are truly profitable and which are not.

6. Don’t Be Results Oriented

This means if you make a proper fold based on equity and EV do not change your thought process if someone else calls and you see you would have hit your hand and won. 

This after-the-fact thinking will lead to negative EV calls that will decimate your bankroll.

Stop Throwing Money Away

Many players fall for fake pot odds because they fail to consider the full picture. Simply comparing the bet size to the pot is not enough—you must also factor in your equity and chances of winning the hand. If your equity is lower than the pot odds required to break even, you are making a -EV call that will cost you money in the long run.

Additionally, multi-way pots significantly decrease the effectiveness of drawing hands, making seemingly good pot odds deceptive. Recognizing these mistakes and adjusting your play will give you a significant edge over opponents who continue to make them.