Hand Breakdown: Villain’s Aggression vs. Hero’s Missed Opportunity
In this hand, we’ve got a typical low-stakes casino game where the Hero opens from under the gun (UTG) with a suited K♣9♣. The hand develops with multiple players showing aggression, and the Hero is faced with a few critical decisions along the way. Let’s walk through the hand step by step, examining what the Hero could have done differently, and what the actions of the villains tell us about their playing style.
Preflop Action: Hero’s UTG Raise with K♣9♣
In this hand, our Hero, who is $540 effective with the main villain, kicks things off with an early position raise holding K♣9♣. This was the Hero’s first mistake. While this hand can look like a playable hand it ends up being more like the Siren’s song, coaxing many a man to their doom. From any early or even middle position, this hand is a pure fold. In the right type of game, a loose passive game, it can be a profitable hand. However, when played in early position you will find yourself dominated far too often.
That said, our Hero throws caution, along with good poker judgment, to the wing and opens K♣9♣ to $15 from under the gun. Calling this play loose is a bit of an understatement, particularly when playing with deep stacks, as this hand has reverse implied odds. If Hero is frequently playing a speculative hand like this from early position, it’s crucial to be aware of table image and the likelihood of facing resistance from opponents holding premium hands.
Our Hero gets calls from the player in middle position and the small blind, creating a pot of $45.
Flop Action: 9♦︎4♥︎5♠︎
The flop comes 9♦︎4♥︎5♠︎, giving Hero top pair with an okay kicker. Hero elects to make a continuation bet of $20 into a pot of $45. This is a standard C-bet size at around 45% of the pot, which puts pressure on hands like overcards while getting value from worse pairs and draws.
Both MP and SB call, which is not uncommon in a loose passive game. Their calls of the pre-flop raise suggests they have marginal hands since they did not 3-bet. Their range could connect with this board, particularly small pairs, suited connectors. They may even just have speculative broadway hands as well.
The middle position player calls our Hero’s bet, but when action gets around to the small blind he check-raise to $45.
This is a big red flag here. Given the dry board and the multiway pot, SB’s check-raise screams strength. It’s essential to consider what range SB might have here. The most likely holdings that check-raise here are all the sets. There are no flush draws available on this flop and the only realistic straight draws are the wheel draws, however, most players at this level are not going to be check-raising a straight draw so we can mostly rule these out. The other likely hands that might check raise here would be overpairs, these are also somewhat unlikely since most over-pairs should have 3-bet pre-flop.
Facing a check-raise and with MP still in the hand, our Hero is forced to think critically. The flat call from MP signals either a draw or a weak pair that doesn’t feel comfortable raising. Hero opts to call the raise, but it’s questionable whether this is the right play.
The Call vs. The Fold
With top pair and a marginal kicker, the Hero’s hand is vulnerable. While calling might seem like the standard play, this is where Hero’s decision-making process can be sharpened. What hands could Hero beat at this point? Pretty much only bluffs, and what bluffs does the small blind have here?
Given the board texture, the check-raise from SB feels value-heavy. Calling the raise leaves the Hero in a tough spot on future streets, especially with multiple players still involved in the pot. A fold here would have been the prudent play, given the likelihood of running into a set or a stronger pair.
Turn Action: A♥︎
After the called check-raise the pot is $180 going to the turn which is the A♥︎. On the surface this is an interesting card. However, in actuality, for the Hero, it doesn’t change much. It doesn’t improve their hand or give them a better draw.
For the SB, however, it’s another chance to rep a strong holding. The SB now leads out with a relatively small bet of $45 into a pot of $180. This bet size seems designed to keep the Hero interested, potentially trying to extract value from weaker hands.
Against what should be better judgment, the Hero calls the small bet, which is perhaps more optimistic than necessary. The middle position player decides they want to keep the party going as wellso they call. The hand is still 3-ways with a pot of $315.
At this stage, Hero is still hoping their top pair is good, but the small bet from SB looks more like a value play from a set trying to extract more chips.
River Action: 2♦︎
The river brings a brick 2♦︎, which changes nothing. SB fires a third small bet of $45. This bet is once again tiny relative to the pot, giving Hero attractive odds to call, but let’s look at the dynamics here:
SB has consistently shown aggression throughout the hand, and the small bets seem to indicate they are trying to milk value from a weaker opponent. At this point, the odds are tempting, but Hero should be folding most of the time, given that SB has shown strength on every street. Hero does indeed fold, which is the correct play at this point.
After the fold, the player in middle position calls for slightly less than the bet, SB reveals 9♠︎4♠︎ for two pair, while MP shows 4♦︎4♣︎, having flopped a set.
Villain Analysis: SB’s Play Style
SB’s play in this hand was aggressive but also very tentative. Check-raising the flop was a good play, since they built the pot while maximizing value from Hero’s top pair.
Their small bets on the turn and river were value losing propositions most of the time. While the turn bet got called in this situation a somewhat larger turn bet would likely have been called as well.
When we see the SB’s 9♠︎4♠︎ flopped top and bottom pair, it explains their aggression on the flop and their attempt to extract value on later streets. However, this is a bad call even though he was closing the action. Far too often you miss the flop, do this often enough and you will be left wondering where your stack has gone.
Even worse is a scenario like the one that played out here where another player has you dominated and uses your own aggression to allow you to hang yourself. Luckily for the SB the middle position player was short tacked, otherwise it would have been a more expensive lesson to learn.
What Could Hero Have Done Differently?
- Preflop Tightening: K♣9♣ is a loose open from UTG. Tightening up the opening range from early position could help avoid these tricky post-flop spots where Hero is often dominated.
- Flop Fold: After SB’s check-raise on the flop, Hero should strongly consider folding. Facing this kind of aggression on such a dry board, from recreational players the Hero is likely crushed by sets, two-pair, or even stronger top-pair hands.
- Turn Caution: Calling the turn bet was another spot where Hero could have folded. The small bet may have looked weak, but it was more likely a value play designed to extract from weaker hands. Couple that with the fact that the middle positon player over-called the flop check-raise and the Hero should have known that a weak top pair turned second pair was no good here.
- River Discipline: Folding on the river was correct, but Hero could have saved a lot of chips by folding earlier in the hand.